F-35. Photo: Air Force

F-35 & Europe

The beleaguered trillion-dollar plane faces challenges, of course, and not just from additional budget pressures in the United States. It’s also facing challenges from austerity in Europe.

Faced with rising costs, Denmark has re-opened the tender process for its next-generation fighter. In other words: While Copenhagen has left the door open for the F-35, it seems doubtful the fighter will be flying Danish colors by the end of the decade. The Netherlands has gone further, halting its part of the test program while taking a second look at its procurement process. Meanwhile, the Dutch are warning it’s not certain the Netherlands will buy the F-35.

Britain and Norway are also considering their options (though none are considering the Dutch nuclear option) including reducing order numbers or seeking other economies to keep costs down. The only country standing firm at the moment appears to be Turkey, which has agreed to order 100 planes despite the rising costs. However, they will be arriving in 2017: two years late. And even here, there is a threat from cooperation agreements between Turkish Armament Industries (TAI) and Saab to develop an indigenous fighter aircraft by 2023.

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich bowed to pressure and released prominent opposition politician Yuriy Lutsenko — a gesture designed to improve Ukraine’s chances of further talks with the European Union regarding eventual accession to the bloc. However, electoral and structural reforms have not impressed the E.U. Commission and the United States, who want jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko released as well. As one unnamed diplomat in Kiev said: “Yanukovych’s poker game is not working. We are not fooled by it.”

Czech Republic

He was once so feared in Czech politics that his nickname was “Voldemort.” Now Czech lobbyist Roman Janoušek is wanted for attempted murder after allegedly running over a woman while drunk at the wheel, blowing a blood alcohol level of 2.2 parts per thousand — in a country where drivers are required to be completely sober.

After a surreal chase by police (which involved Janoušek staggering away from police on foot), the pursuing officers have been castigated for allowing Janoušek to make calls on his mobile phone at the scene of the crime — and being released after only a brief questioning despite the episode being filmed by Czech television.

Why does the arrest warrant matter? Janoušek was originally charged with inflicting serious bodily harm — a lesser offense. The sudden change of heart by the police appears to have come about as a direct result of the whole episode being filmed and aired, which caused uproar among the public. The Czech media have also released excerpts from wiretaps purporting to show Janoušek working as an influential political power-player in Prague and beyond.

Russia

The United States released a list of Russians banned from entering the country due to allegations of human rights abuses. The restrictions were imposed after Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky died in prison in 2009. Magnitsky is currently being posthumously tried by Russian courts for tax evasion.

But the move angered Moscow at a delicate time, as Washington depends on Russian support in a variety of areas such as North Korea. In a move seen to placate Russia, several officials close to President Vladimir Putin have been left off the list.

Photo: via Der Spiegel.

Russia

There are increasing fears that the Russian government will begin to start enforcing a law known as the “foreign agent” law. Passed last July, it requires NGOs that receive funding from abroad to register as “foreign agents.”

Since the law has been passed it has not been enforced and no NGO has registered. This may have been due to a marked reluctance by the Justice Ministry to enforce the law. However, in recent months state prosecutors, tax officers and officials from the justice ministry have began to make spot inspections of dozens of NGOs across Russia.

The fear is that what started as demands for staff lists and tax records will turn into arbitrary orders to shut down. Golos, a vote-monitoring NGO, was subject to a campaign of harassment during Duma elections in December 2011 and Human Rights Watch has had its Moscow office searched.

On a more sinister level, every search so far has been accompanied by a TV crew from NTV, the state-owned channel, which points to the Putin administration using this latest crackdown as a propaganda tool.

Russia & Boris Berezovsky

The Russian government announced that it will be seeking the heirs to the fortune of recently deceased Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky’s fortune. The figure is estimated at £300 million ($441 million).

Berezovsky rose to power as one of Russia’s first oligarchs after gaining control of various lucrative assets in manufacturing and media. He was close to Boris Yeltsin but fell out of favor when Vladimir Putin rose to power and found his position in Russia’s power structure precarious. On November 2000, he failed to return home to Russia when summoned as a witness in a fraud investigation.

He was found dead on March 23 of this year at his home in Berkshire, U.K. A postmortem revealed that he had died from hanging and that there were no signs of a struggle. He had been due to give evidence at the inquest into the death of dissident Alexander Litvinenko.

Cyberdefense

Divisions have emerged over the best way forward for Europe to counter the increasing number of cyber-attacks, the most recent of which hit the Czech Republic in March, targeting a popular search engine, banks and the Prague Stock Exchange .

Since March there has been debate on which is the best path towards beefing up cyber security in the public and private realms. The E.U. Commission plans to deliver a new directive forcing companies to declare publicly whenever there has been a breach in their network security. The U.K. has opposed such moves saying that voluntary collaboration is better than compulsion.

It comes at a time when Britain has launched its own collaboration scheme which brings together the security services, the government listening post GCHQ, the government IT security body CESG and business bodies. The aim is to encourage public and private bodies to share information on breaches and threats.

NATO was one of the first to react to the threat of cyber-attacks by setting up the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence (CCDCOE) in Tallinn, Estonia, which helps improve collaboration across NATO and with select non-NATO nations.

Turkey & Israel

Talks have begun over compensation to be paid to the victims of a botched raid by Israeli commandos on the MV Mavi Mamara in 2010, which resulted in the deaths of 10 Turks and one Turkish-American, with several Israelis injured.

Turkey’s deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said that an Israeli delegation will travel to Turkey in April and will work with the Turkish government and lawyers representing the victims families.

These developments come after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu telephoned his Turkish counterpart Recewp Tayyip Erdogan to apologize for the episode.

At the same time there is a debate ongoing over what prompted the sudden thawing in relations between the two countries. What is not in doubt was that it was an 11^th hour intervention by Pres. Obama that brought the two sides together. There are other theories pointing to the events in Iran, Syria and even in the new gas fields of the eastern Mediterranean which have brought a new emphasis on continued collaboration between the two countries.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu however insisted that it was only by “heavy pressure on Israel on every diplomatic field” that broke the impasse.

A400M. Photo: via Wikimedia

Cyprus

Fallout from the troubled rescue of the Cypriot economy continues after the 11^th hour agreement over the weekend which included a hefty 9.9-percent tax on all deposits over €100,000. With Cyprus traditionally seen by Russia as an investment — and money laundering — safe haven; Russian businesses and individuals face big losses although high profile companies like Gazprom appear not to have been impacted by the crisis.

The reaction in Russia last week had been to accuse the EU and IMF of being “unprofessional” and had also threatened to unilaterally alter the terms of a €2.5 billion loan it made to Cyprus in 2011. This week following a lack of participation by the Russians in the subsequently approved deal the reaction from Moscow has been much more muted.

Britain meanwhile was forced to fly in emergency Euros to its Sovereign Base Areas on the island to ensure that servicemen and women would continue to be paid in the event of a cessation of ATM service on the island.

With its once lucrative banking industry in ruins and its lax financial regulatory regime about to be reformed under pressure from the E.U.-IMF-ECB troika in Nicosia the outlook for Cyprus looks challenging in the short to medium term.

France

After a so far largely successful intervention in Mali, France has now begun an internal debate into the ramifications Operation Serval has had on defense policy. Socialist Pres. Francois Hollande has delayed the release of a far-reaching defense review, indicating that feared defense cuts may not happen after all.

France has committed to cutting €60 billion worth of spending during the term of the present government with all departments obliged to pull their weight. Spending on defense in France as part of GDP has fallen from 2.5 percent at the end of the Cold War to 1.56 percent today.

Several large French or French based defense companies including Dassault and Thales wrote to President Hollande this month urging a rethink on cuts.

E.U. and Syria

The E.U. will not arm Syria’s rebel factions. For now. France has gone so far to say that it along with the U.K. will unilaterally arm Syria (although the U.K.’s Foreign Office later watered down those remarks) and that both had become “increasingly concerned about the regime’s willingness to use chemical weapons.”

However many E.U. governments remain reluctant to commit to a change in policy on Syria and last Friday voted in Dublin to keep the existing arms ban in place unchanged and defer a definitive decision on policy until June.

Reasons against lifting an arms embargo were outlined by Austria and Germany highlighting the lack of control on equipment with supplies falling into the hands of hardline Islamist factions. Lifting an embargo may also encourage Iran and Russia to step up its support of embattled Syrian Pres. Assad.

In the meantime the U.K. has been supplying armored vehicles and enhanced non-lethal supplies to Syrian rebel groups to complement the arms that are being shipped courtesy of Gulf Arab governments. Evidence is also emerging that the CIA is already funneling arms.

E.U. and Zimbabwe

The European Union has voted to lift the majority of sanctions on a variety of key figures and businesses in Zimbabwe after what it calls a “peaceful, successful and credible” referendum on a new constitution. The package also appears to be the most significant outreach to Zimbabwean Pres. Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party yet.

As mentioned, Zimbabwe held a largely peaceful referendum on a new constitution imposing new limits on executive power and this has paved the way for elections to be held later this year.

Some argue however that the E.U. has rewarded ZANU-PF too early and it could encourage them to clamp down on opposition and rig the subsequent elections. Banning several Western NGOs from monitoring the forthcoming elections may increase the likelihood of this happening though no decision has been taken yet.

Airbus A400M

Europe’s troubled medium lift aircraft project has recently benefited from a burst of activity early in 2013 including the flight of the first A400M to roll off the production line and full civilian certification by European regulators. The French air force will be the recipient of the first three aircraft with Turkey due to receive the fourth later this year.

The U.K. has signed a deal with a joint venture between Airbus and Thales which will cover training for pilots and loadmasters. It has also signed a deal for an extra C-17 Globemaster to cover a shortfall in capacity as its existing fleet of C-130s and C-17s are stretched to the limit with multiple commitments across the globe.

HMS Dauntless. Wikimedia photo.

United Kingdom
Despite the cuts, the drumbeat of operations rolls on. In addition to the previously announced dispatching of Type 45 Destroyer HMS Daring to the Persian Gulf to join the international flotilla already there, the Foreign Office released a rather hurried notification to the press that Daring’s sister ship, HMS Dauntless, would be sailing south to the Falkland Islands to relieve the Type 23 frigate HMS Montrose.

Daring and Dauntless are currently the two most formidable ships in the Royal Navy’s fleet with stealth features as well as a powerful radar and weapons package designed specifically to defeat aerial threats — including sea-skimming missiles such as Exocet. The ship will be conducting its duties for six months around the islands covering the 30th anniversary of the Falklands conflict in 1982.

Recently, tensions have been rising in the run up to the event with Prime Minister David Cameron and Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner trading barbs over the time-old question of who owns the islands. These tensions have been intensified due to a shipping embargo by Southern Cone trade bloc Mercosur, and increased oil and gas exploration in the waters around the islands.

As well as Dauntless, Britain has 1,500 servicemen stationed on the Falklands servicing four Eurofighter Typhoons, a C-130 Hercules and a VC-10 refueling aircraft. There are also constant rumors about a British submarine operating in the South Atlantic at all times.

Persian Gulf
As well as the Americans and British, the French have committed resources to the international flotilla currently in the Gulf. The French frigate La Motte-Picquet sailed through the contentious Strait of Hormuz with the Royal Navy frigate HMS Argyll and the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.  The carrier was accompanied by a guided missile frigates and two destroyers.

The movement was designed to exercise freedom of the seas in the face of threats by Iran to close the strait to traffic. This would prevent oil from leaving the region to customers abroad and in turn could send oil prices spiking upwards. The idea of policing the seas around Iran in order to keep the sea lanes open, therefore, appears to be a wise one.

There are fears, however, that all this sailing around Iran may well provoke an accidental exchange leading to a wider conflict. Both sides have amassed large amounts of weaponry in a relatively small area. Meanwhile, the lack of adequate diplomatic channels between Iran and many of the flotilla members could mean that if an exchange of fire does happen, no nation will be quick enough to stop a wider conflict from breaking out.

India
Concluding what some could say is a stellar comeback, the French Rafale fighter system has bagged itself an $11 billion order to supply 126 fighter jets to the Indian air force. The French came out as the lowest and most attractive bidder for the Indians, who will now enter exclusive contract negotiations with Dassault. The news will come as a bitter blow for BAE systems and EADS who were seen as favorites for the competition, and who were relying on winning business in India in order to sustain production across Europe. BAE systems said as much when it laid off thousands of staff at its U.K. sites last year.

The order is a coup for the French defense industry. Apart from contests in Brazil and Malaysia, the continued era of austerity may see plane orders dry up rapidly.

Scandinavia
Two men were convicted in Norway of planning to blow up a Danish newspaper that printed controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad. Mikael Davud, a Chinese Norwegian, was accused of being the ringleader of the plot along with Sadek Saeed Bujak, originally from Iraqi Kurdistan. Their plan allegedly involved bombing the offices of the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, and prosecutors say the pair received bomb making training from Al Qaeda. Davud denied the charges and said he intended to bomb the Chinese embassy in retaliation for its treatment of the Chinese Uighur community. He also said he received training in Iran.

The convictions come at a time of rising extremism across Scandinavia. As well as Denmark fending off terrorist plots, Norway and Sweden have been the victims of terrorist attacks including the notorious rampage by right-wing fanatic Anders Breivik last year, which resulted in the deaths of 77 people.

Northern Ireland
It can be said the little steps are the most important ones. The impressive relationship between the Democratic Unionist leader Peter Robinson and his Sinn Fein counterpart, Martin McGuinness, has steered Northern Ireland back towards localized rule, mainstream Republicanism, cooperating with the police and further cooperation with the South.

And in a further development of this warm relationship, Robinson broke a long standing Unionist taboo by attending a Gaelic football match with McGuinness. Attending the Dr. McKenna Cup match between Derry and Tyrone, Robinson reportedly received a “warm reception.” McGuinness also plans to attend a Northern Ireland soccer international at its home stadium, Windsor Park, and intends to cheer for Northern Ireland.

AN/TPY-2. Wikimedia photo.

United States & Europe
The United States unveiled a major refocus in defense policy last week: a shift away from Europe via a major withdrawal of personnel and material from the continent as the U.S. redirects toward Asia.

The shift had been trailed for as long as a year with U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq peaking or ending, and policy makers looking to gradually scale back the country’s European defense commitments. And as the U.S. withdraws, many European nations remain vulnerable from a lack basic air-to-air refueling, intelligence gathering and support capabilities. Recently, far from taking a strictly back seat role, the U.S. had to provide the backbone of the NATO effort over Libya.

The problem in Europe lies not in funding (defense spending within the European Union is at least over $250 billion, second only to the United States) but in how it is spent. Some countries such as the United Kingdom and France focus on preserving nuclear deterrents and true blue water navies, while others such as Germany and Poland focus more on land forces geared toward Cold War scenarios. What’s lacking is a decent coordinated strategy to gel any one nation’s strengths with its allies.

NATO
A major piece in NATO’s anti-ballistic missile defense shield fell in to place this week with the opening of a new early warning radar in the Turkish province of Malatya. As Turkey lacks qualified operators of the American AN/TPY-2 system, the facility will be staffed by NATO technicians and commanded by an officer from the Turkish army.

The system’s location is strongly opposed by Iran, which itself is under intense pressure by the international community over its controversial nuclear program.

Pakistan
If your government is under pressure from a restive military and has burnt its bridges with a now semi-hostile American government, who do you call? Probably not the United Kingdom. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani allegedly found this out in discussions claimed to have taken place between him and the British High Commission in Islamabad.

The “panicky” call was made after the “memogate” scandal in which a figure within the current Pakistani government allegedly asked for assistance from former U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman Admiral Mike Mullen. The request in turn angered the Pakistani military. British Foreign Secretary William Hague called for calm but refused to comment on what allegedly took place.

Iran
As tensions rise over Iran’s nuclear program and its threat to close the Persian Gulf, Russia has made it clear that it would consider any attack on Iran a threat to its own national security. Russia, which already opposes any oil embargo against Iran, seems to have calculated the move to discourage any potential military action.

The United States, the European Union and Japan are co-operating to block Iranian oil imports while Israel is suspected of a string of bomb attacks assassinating key figures of Iran’s nuclear program.

Eurofighter. German Air Force photo.

Turkey
The arrest of former Turkish Chief of Staff Ilker Basbug as part of an ongoing investigation into anti-government plotting within the military has come as a shock to many within Turkey. He will face trial in a civil court, which was unthinkable even a decade ago.

Turkey’s military in the past has been omnipresent force in the nation’s politics, having successfully concluded three coups and forced an Islamist prime minister to quit in 1997. It helped shape the country’s current constitution and its secular system. However, since the rise of the AK Party and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the power of the military has been sharply reduced.

Meanwhile, the Turkish military has never been busier. As well as NATO commitments overseas, Turkey has also battled Kurdish PKK insurgents on its Iraqi border and has made several incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan as it has sought to destroy PKK groups. It also faces a possible humanitarian catastrophe on its doorstep in the event Syria descends into civil war.

Gripen, Rafale & Typhoon
As one fighter contest in Japan closes, another opens in Malaysia. Once again Europe’s premier fighters — the Saab Gripen, the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon — are in a race to replace the RMAF’s 10 MIG-29N aircraft.

This comes at a tough time for Europe’s aerospace industry, which has performed poorly in most of Asia so far. losing out to American or Russian systems. Here again, the Boeing F/A-18 and Sukhoi Su-35 are in the running.

India
One part of Asia where European industry is doing very well is India. New Delhi has just inked a $1.2-billion deal with MBDA to buy 500 air-to-air missiles. The deal is part of an existing arrangement to upgrade India’s 51 Mirage 2000 aircraft. Later this year India will decide whether to buy the Dassault Rafale or the Eurofighter Typhoon as its next generation fighter.

The spending spree comes at a time of rising tensions not only between India and its old enemy Pakistan, but also with China.

U.K. & Australia
Facing redundancy as part of the Ministry of Defense’s cuts but still want a navy job? The Australian Department of Defense wants you to help bring its own navy up to speed.

Australia is expanding to face challenges in the Far East, but is finding it hard to recruit within its own borders as competition in the private sector is fierce. It was revealed that in 2010, two-thirds of the navy was unable to operate at full capacity due to manpower shortages. There are also significant safety concerns with its fleet of Collins-class submarines due to a lack of engineering expertise and submariner skills, which ex-Royal Navy sailors could certainly provide.

Potential recruits will be offered fast-track Australian citizenship.

Dolphin class. Via Armybase.us.

U.K.
A Grenadier Guardsman, Daniel Crook, has been sentenced to 18 months and dishonorably discharged from the British Army for stabbing a 10-year-old boy in Afghanistan. Crook had been drinking so heavily the day before the incident that he had to receive treatment. There was such concern that he might be a danger that when he joined his section for a patrol at Nad e Ali, he had his rifle confiscated. He was armed with just a bayonet and two grenades.

It was during the patrol that he came across young Ghulam Nabi, running errands on his bicycle. Nabi apparently pestered Crook for chocolate. Crook bayoneted him in the kidney. Crook caught up with his section and admitted what he had done. When questioned by military police, he could not explain why he had stabbed Nabi. The boy’s father, Haji Shah Zada, said he has not received an apology from the Ministry of Defense.

Germany
Germany has authorized the sale of a Dolphin-class submarine to Israel at a bargain price. As much as $180 million has been set aside by the German government to subsidize the order.

The Dolphin class, of which Israel already has three, is capable of launching nuclear-tipped missiles, but there is no indication that Israel has developed such a capability. The acquisition comes at a time of rising tensions between Iran, Israel and the West over the Iran’s nuclear program.

European Union
Collaboration is the word within European defense circles as the E.U. announces several new projects, which will see European nations pool resources in up to 11 different military areas such as in-flight refueling and and medical facilities. The need for more co-operation has been highlighted by the difficulty European nations experienced during the recent campaign over Libya.

As America starts to focus more and more on the Pacific region, Europe is being expected to look after its own backyard. But with America providing over 70 percent of NATO defense spending, this looks to be a rather optimistic goal.

Rafale.

Missile Defense
Russian President Dimitry Medvedev has announced on national television that in the event of the failure of talks over U.S. and European missile defenses, Russia will opt to re-equip its strategic rocket forces with new nuclear warheads and deploy short-range missiles in areas close to NATO members. “We will not agree to take part in a program that in a relatively short period of time, in five, six or perhaps eight years’ time is capable of weakening our (nuclear) deterrent potential,” Medvedev said. The United States has replied that it will press on with its missile-defense program.

In a related development, NATO will stop sharing military data with Russia after it failed to abide by the terms of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty.

Britain & France
The Anglo-French defense love-in is set to continue next week at a summit focusing specifically on shared drone development and better representation at NATO. The recent conflict in Libya highlighted a shortage of unmanned vehicles in the British and French militaries. BAE systems and Dassault Aviation are jointly developing a new drone.

Eurozone
Portugal, already suffering from recession and austerity cuts, has been warned by the organizers of the country’s 1974 revolution that further cuts in government spending could spark revolutions not only in Portugal but across Europe. “We cannot let the one percent of the population that controls financial markets destroy the rest of society,” said Mário Tomé, a 71-year former rebel colonel.

While the Portuguese rebels’ influence has long since waned, there are signs that the turmoil across Europe is causing civil-military tensions. Before George Papandreou resigned as Greek prime minister, he dismissed many of Greece’s senior military commanders under the pretext of a pre-planned yearly review of positions.

Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon
While India ponders which aircraft to select for its next-generation fighter, the two frontrunners — the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon — have been pitted against each other in another market: the UAE.

The Emirates’ requirement for 60 planes has prompted presentations from Boeing, Dassault and EADS, but only Dassault and EADS have received Requests for Proposals.

Romanian MiG-21s. Via AvWeek.

Libya
The role played by mercenaries on both sides of the conflict in Libya has become clearer after claims that British, French and Qatari mercs had been captured by pro-Gadhafi forces near Bani Walid, one of the few remaining strongholds of the North African strongman.

The “technical experts” were reportedly amongst 17 captured during fighting over the past few days.

So far news on the situation has been sparse, with both the Foreign Office in Britain and the French Foreign Ministry saying they have no information, while NATO says none of its servicemen have been captured.

This comes as another blow to National Transitional Government forces, who have had to retreat in disorder from both Bani Walid and Sirte after troops went in before tank and artillery support could be brought to bear.

European Union
Build a European Defense HQ by any means necessary. That’s the message that France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain have sent E.U. High Representative Baroness Ashton.
For example, the current E.U. naval mission off Somalia would fall under the HQ’s remit.

Britain is deeply hostile to the idea, calling it a “red line,” while other E.U. powers are in favor. This is the latest in a long-running saga, highlighting once again the infighting common within the European Union.

Romania
Romania officially put the brakes on any purchase of fighters in the current economic climate, illustrating the severe financial difficulties many European air forces are facing. Romania is struggling to finance replacements for its aging Soviet-era kit. While it had desired to buy new F-16s, Romanian President Traian Basescu noted his country could not afford the billions they would cost.

Romania’s problem is shared by other Eastern European nations such as Bulgaria and Croatia. A compromise may well be sought, where all three nations work with America towards a regional agreement pooling resources for an eventual F-16 purchase.

Poland
America and Poland signed a joint statement affirming their commitment to install components of a missile-defense shield at Redzikowo military base by 2018. Poland had agreed to base SM-3 missiles at Redzikowo in exchange for Patriot missile systems, a permanent American garrison and an explicit guarantee of assistance if Poland is attacked.

America is also continuing with its plans to site SM-3 missiles in Romania and radar systems in Turkey as part of a pan-NATO effort.

Russia is hostile to any idea of an American or NATO missile shield, calling it a threat to national security.

Libya. CBC photo.

Libya
As the war in Libya reaches its conclusion around Moammar Gadhafi’s hometown of Sirte, rather embarrassing questions are starting to be asked about the role of mercenaries. Until now the focus has been on Gadhafi importing so-called “African” mercenaries from the Central African Republic and Chad, but now a Bosnian-Croat has come forward to say that he had been brought in by Gadhafi as an advisor and over the course of the six month conflict observed the gradual but inevitable collapse of the regime. “Mario” the Croat may not be the only one, as Croatian news sites are reporting that as many as 17 Croats or Bosnian-Croats might have been arrested in Tripoli. There had been rumors in February at the start of the rebellion that Gadhafi had hired Serbs to fight for him.

If any of these stories are true, it would hardly be surprising. The break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s left a legacy of a young and disaffected male population with basic military training and experience in the irregular warfare which has become the norm in today’s myriad conflicts. These Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs are now featuring more and more in mercenary markets such as Afghanistan and Iraq.

Turkey
The gloves are officially off between former BFFs Israel and Turkey as the Mavi Mavara fiasco continues to strain relations. Turkey last week expelled the Israeli ambassador after the country refused to apologize for the deaths of Turkish nationals during a botched raid on a flotilla attempting to break a blockade on the Gaza Strip. A U.N. report said that while Israeli forces used “excessive force,” the blockade was legal.

Now things are starting to get serious as Turkey is mirroring the same highly stringent immigration procedures used in Israel, but for Israeli nationals only. The measures include deliberately separating Israeli nationals and questioning them for hours before conducting other humiliating procedures such as strip searches. Other measures have also been announced including trade sanctions and a full suspension of defense ties between the two countries.

The Balkans
Another week and another war crimes conviction. The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia has found former Yugoslav army general Momcilo Perisic guilty of war crimes and sentenced him to 27 years in prison.

Perisic was found guilty of aiding and abetting murders, inhumane acts, persecutions on political, racial or religious grounds, and attacks on civilians in Sarajevo and Sebrenica and also for allowing subordinates to launch rocket attacks on the Croatian city of Zagreb. He was acquitted, however, of aiding and abetting extermination in Srebrenica.

Perisic surrendered and was transferred to The Hague in March 2005, and his trial began in October 2008. He had pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Turkish ferry in Libya. Telegraph photo.

When Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu issued Turkey’s final warning to Syria on August 15 it marked the end of an era in Turkish relations with the Middle East. Davutoglu had visited the authoritarian Middle Eastern country 60 times in his post as chief Turkish diplomat and many of them were in crisis talks over the protests that had swept the country in the past six months.

Davutoglu had expected his words to carry some weight and that Turkey, a regional superpower and a prospective candidate for European Union membership, could influence its neighbor to the south and encourage it to open up and halt the ongoing crackdown. When those words fell on deaf ears, it marked an end to an experiment known as the “zero-problems” foreign policy.

Previous Turkish governments had taken a hard line towards the Middle East and a policy of co-operation with Israel. This changed from 2003 when Davutoglu and Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, representing the moderate Islamic AK Party, came to power and gradually started to assert civilian authority in the face of a suspicious secular military.

The idea was simple: engage with Turkey’s authoritarian neighbors such as Iran and Syria and, using a combination of trade and diplomacy ensure three goals: the securing of Turkey’s long border with the Middle East, a joint response to Kurdish extremism and (it hoped) the gradual cooling of a restive and volatile region prone to boiling over into conflict which would threaten Turkish stability.

In recent years and after elections in 2007 secured an even bigger AK Party majority in Turkey’s parliament, the zero-problems policy was rolled out into other areas outside of Turkey’s usual sphere of influence. More authoritarian countries in North Africa such as Algeria, Libya and Tunisia all benefited from a gentler diplomatic approach and greater trade with Turkey.

The biggest event came when Turkey started to foster greater diplomatic and economic ties with its traditional enemy Greece. In 2010, at a time of great economic and political crisis in Greece, Erdogan and Davutoglu visited with an army of Turkish ministers and businessmen. Joint cabinet meetings were held and contracts signed and while key issues of borders and a final solution to the Cyprus question were not settled, they were never meant to be. The aim of Turkey’s visit was one of solidarity with its stricken neighbor and to foster an atmosphere where the two countries could set aside their differences and focus on areas of mutual benefit.

The American government and some European nations such as Britain have called for Turkey’s entry into the E.U. to be accelerated. Turkey’s zero-problems policy has also been praised in parts of the world as promoting a more stable and prosperous Middle East.

But zero problems in fact created problems — and awkward ones at that. Some politicians in America and the E.U. have wondered aloud that if Turkey is actively engaging with regimes such as Iran and Syria, whose side exactly is it on? France and Germany grumble loudly that Turkey turning a blind eye to blatant human rights abuses in Iran and Syria harms its prospects of E.U. membership.

Worse still, Israeli-Turkish relations have collapsed after several diplomatic incidents, including one case bordering on the bizarre when Israel’s deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon summoned Turkey’s ambassador and dressed him down on national television.

Then came the ill-fated Mavi Mamara fiasco in 2010. A botched raid by Israeli Special Forces on a ship heading for the Gaza strip ended in nine activists killed and several injured Israeli commandos briefly taken captive, and effectively froze relations between the two nations for a period. Currently, Israel and Turkey are at loggerheads over who is to blame and if an apology by Israel is required. A thaw in relations may only happen if there is a change in government in one or both countries.

Also, these issues were manageable so long as there was no major geo-political event that could disrupt the delicate balance between East and West that Turkey had so carefully set over the previous decade. Turkey felt that it could continue to develop links to nations once considered beyond the pale and gradually reform itself to become more attractive to the West.

Which is why it could be argued that no country in the region was caught more unawares by the Arab Spring than Turkey. When it broke out in Tunisia, Turkey like France found itself wrongfooted by mass popular protests that started to either remove existing regimes friendly to Ankara or force them into making extensive concessions.

Most damaging were the fall of Tunisian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Libya’s descent into chaos. Turkish business had invested heavily in both countries and now face serious losses as uncertainty looms as to the post-Arab Spring political landscape.

Most worryingly of all, as the protests inch closer and closer to home, Turkey faces an unprecedented foreign policy challenge as a tense Lebanon combines with a mass protest movement in Israel, a surge in violence in Iraq and a Syria in meltdown.

This has seen Turkey in some ways revert to type as its unilateral tendencies start to re-appear. Already Turkey has darkly hinted that what is happening in Syria is an “internal Turkish matter” as it frets about the possibility of a long porous border becoming a backdoor for Kurdish terrorism. Nobody is predicting a Turkish intervention in Syria, but then again few had predicted the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974.

The options for Turkey now are limited. It can either wait and see or follow its zero-problems strategy and simply shift its stance to accommodate the new order falling across the Middle East. The approach in recent months has been markedly different to how Turkey dealt with Libya and Tunisia initially, as Ankara tries to stay one step ahead in the diplomatic game. Turkish ferries have helped injured civilians out of rebel-held Libya for treatment in Turkey or elsewhere, while aid has been promised to Egypt and Tunisia in an effort to woo the new governments. A new Kadima-led government in Israel may lead to a thaw in relations between the two countries.

Where this will end nobody quite knows, but it will be dictated by the ebb and flow of the Arab Spring.

Rafale. Via Airliners.net.

Turkey
It was a showdown that was years in the making. Turkey’s largely secular military and the moderate Islamic government facing off over the future of the nation, as well as over promotions and the prosecution of hundreds of military officers following an alleged coup plot. The result? The entire senior command of the Turkish armed forces resigning en masse.

The tension has been a constant feature of the often uneasy relationship Turkey’s military has with its civilian bosses. There have been many coups in the past, when the military stepped in to protect what it calls the legacy of Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey.

So when the Justice and Development Party, an Islamic political party, swept into power in 2002, all eyes were on the military. Tensions came to a head when the military took issue with the scale of a government clampdown against officers, journalists and other known secular figures involved in an alleged plot known as “Sledgehammer.” The military wanted to promote those in the military linked to the plot, while the government wanted to put them on trial.

Another instigator was a new constitution approved by referendum, which gave civilian courts the power to try those serving in the military.

Dassault
Finally some good news for the beleaguered Dassault Rafale fighter program. Negotiations have resumed between France and the United Arab Emirates with a view to selling the system to the Arab nation by the end of this year.

That isn’t the only bit of good news. Dassault is hoping to sell the Rafale M, the navalized version which flies for the French navy, to India to fly off of its new generation of carriers. Unlike its competitors the navalized Eurofighter and the MiG-29K, the Rafale M has a proven track record over Libya.