A U.S. Army National Guardsman at his post along the U.S.-Mexico border near Nogales, Arizona. DoD photo.

This summer, Mexicans will go to the polls to choose their country’s next commander-in-chief. But the new president will also have to deal with ominous developments in the drug war and the fact that few Mexicans believe the government’s strategy is working. He or she will also have to negotiate with the U.S. on the scope — and responsibilities — of America’s role in fighting the cartels.

The reason is stunning. More than half of Mexicans (52 percent) want an increased U.S. role in the drug war, and 28 percent want the U.S. military to intervene on Mexican soil, according to polling conducted by The Dallas Morning News, Mexico’s El Universal and Texas Spanish newspaper Al Día. Only 21 percent of Mexicans say the government’s strategy is working, though 64 percent think the military should continue “leading the fight” against the cartels. Ending the drug war through striking a deal with the gangsters is as popular as the current strategy: Only 21 percent think it’s a good idea.

“That tells you that Mexicans are really, really tired of this drug war, and they would rather see an end sooner than wait years fighting this by themselves,” Jorge Buendía, president of polling firm Buendía & Laredo, told The Dallas Morning News. Buendía added that because many Mexicans blame the U.S. in part for the drug war (with plenty of justification), many are becoming “more pragmatic and tolerant about alternatives.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Gen. Charles Jacoby. NORAD photo.

Mexico’s “decapitation” strategy of capturing or killing high-value drug cartel leaders with the help of U.S. advisers has a certain merit to it. After all, cartel bosses are seriously bad dudes who corrupt, bribe, kidnap and kill their way to power across swathes of territory across our border.

The problem, according to the chief of U.S. military forces in North America, is that the strategy isn’t working.

“The decapitation strategy — they’ve been successful at that. Twenty-two out of the top 37 trafficking figures that the Mexican government has gone after have been taken off the board,” Gen. Charles Jacoby, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said during testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. Then, a caveat: “But it has not had an appreciable effect — an appreciable, positive effect.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Karrar drone. Iranian defense ministry photo.

Iran is planning to build drones for the Venezuelan military. Just so you know, it sounds worse than it is.

That’s according to Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, chief of U.S. forces in South America. According to Fraser, who spoke to reporters in Washington on Wednesday, the drones are to be manufactured in Venezuela with Iranian help and will likely be used for “internal defense.” The exact kind of drones isn’t clear. But the robots are probably too small to be armed.

“I would put it in the ScanEagle class of UAV,” Fraser told U.S. News & World Report‘s military blog DOTMIL. “It’s not up into the Predator class.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

AP photo.

Three years ago, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that the war on drugs “had not worked” — and admitted that the American appetite for narcotics “fuels the drug trade.” But now Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano would like to take that all back. It’s full steam ahead for the drug war.

“‘Is the drug war a failure and are we going to change our strategy?’ I would not agree with the premise that the drug war is a failure,” Napolitano said Monday after a meeting with Alejandro Poire, Mexico’s interior minister and top drug warrior. “I would say however that it is a continuing effort, to keep our peoples from becoming addicted to dangerous drugs,” she added.

Few U.S. officials will object to defending the drug war on its merits, and Napolitano’s statement does not necessarily prelude joint responsibility for drug trafficking — a key part of the administration’s post-2008 shift in tone. Napolitano also called for working “bi-nationally, but in a regional way.” What’s remarkable, though, is the abrupt shift backwards at a time when Mexico and Central America are increasingly swamped by violent and militarized cartels.

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Photo via Flickr user gynti_46.

On the surface, the drug war across the border boils down to a conflict between Mexico’s military and rival groups of cartels. This is true, but it leaves out Mexico’s other conflict — one fought against civilians through kidnapping, extortion and assassination. Little wonder that those who can afford it are now fueling a boom in professional bodyguards and guns-for-hire, many of them based in the United States.

And the boom is not just limited to jobs in Mexico — it’s happening on both sides of the border. It involves private security firms employed by both Mexican and U.S. citizens traveling from one country to the other, to border regions, or fueled by Mexican citizens relocating to the U.S. to escape the violence. The jobs given to the bodyguards involve protecting their clients against violent cartel threats and abductions, and helping negotiate kidnapping cases.

There are also serious risks. Some companies won’t work in Mexico proper because of the danger, while others do so — quietly.

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Two years ago, Antonio Pena Arguelles was handling millions in drug money and working as the intermediary between the violent Zetas cartel and senior Mexican politicians. On Tuesday, U.S. authorities seized him at his suburban San Antonio home, where Pena was allegedly hiding from his former employers. What brought him there, however, involves a story of betrayal, deceit and the assassination of a Mexican political candidate by unknown gunmen that would lead the Zetas to want to kill him.

According to court documents obtained by the San Antonio Express-News, Pena began his criminal career largely on the U.S. side of the border: receiving drug money from Texas border cities and wiring the funds between banks in Mexico, Texas and California. He is believed to have built up a small fortune: millions in a Swiss bank account and millions more tied up in ranch properties in Mexico. One ranch Pena owned near the border city of Nuevo Laredo allegedly acted as a conduit for moving drugs, allowing the Zetas to bypass federal police officers encamped nearby.

From the ranch, Pena’s contacts branched out to allegedly include a sitting Mexican governor and the former mayor of Nuevo Laredo. He was the “go-between” between the narco underground and the professional class, and navigated “circles with politicans and business leaders.” In 2008, Pena allegedly met up with Yarrington Ruvalcaba, a former governor (now under investigation by Mexican authorities) to discuss a “financial dispute” with the Zetas’ second-in-command.

Read the rest at Danger Room.

La Piedrita. Photo via Fausta's Blog.

Venezuela
The Venezuelan National Assembly reformed the country’s anti-terrorism law “to “help combat crimes such as money laundering, bomb threats and airplane hijackings,” in a move that has angered opposition and rights activists while prompting a rhetorical defense from the government. “[It is] a strong law against terrorism and those who finance it,” said Andres Eloy Mendez, a representative of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela. According to Venezuelanalysis.com, a pro-government English-language news outlet, the revision expands penalties for terrorism and narco-trafficking. Opposition politicians argue the revisions overly expand the definition of terrorism.

Meanwhile, a brief kidnapping affair involving the Mexican ambassador came and went. The ambassador, Carolos Pujalte Pinerio, was reportedly seized after leaving a private party one week ago. He was held for several hours without being harmed. Venezuelan authorities have since reportedly arrested the kidnappers.

In other news, two political rallies drew notice for their militaristic themes. The first attracted controversy after photos of a rally featuring armed children were widely distributed across the country and into international media. The rally was reportedly led by Colectivo La Piedrita, a collective based in the “23 de enero” — or January 23 — barrio in western Caracas. Behind was a mural featuring the Virgin Mary and Jesus Christ armed with AK-47 rifles. The image is highly controversial not the least because of purported links with the ruling party. Representative Robert Serra was pictured at the rally, “indicating some official support for the display.” The Venezuelan government is believed to unofficially support numerous militias across the country, in addition to the official and national Bolivarian militia troops.

The other rally: a commemorative parade in downtown Caracas led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The parade was to mark the 20th anniversary of what Chavistas call a failed revolution (and opponents call an attempted coup) to oust former President Carlos Andres Perez. According to Pulsamerica, the parade marked a prominent display of Venezuela’s latest imports of T-72 tanks.

Brazil
Thousands of Brazilian army toops deployed to the state of Bahia to maintain security after a major police strike kicked off last week. As much as one-third of the state’s police forces, or 10,000 police officers, are demanding wage increases through the strike. Also notable is the approaching Carnival, of which Bahia is an important location. To put the security crisis left by the vacating police officers in perspective: the state has seen a surge of 81 murders in the past five days, according to AAP. Looting has also become a serious problem, and clashes have been reported between the army and striking police officers.

On the international stage, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff visited Cuba, although hopes Rousseff would bring attention to Cuba’s human rights went unfulfilled. “It’s not possible to use human rights as a political and ideological weapon,” Rousseff said. “The world needs to be convinced that it’s something every country has to take responsibility for, including our own,” she added.

The visit also signaled a new round of trade and technology transfer agreements between Cuba and Brazil. “This is about growing Brazil’s soft power on the international scale and raising Brazil’s role in the world,” Brazil specialist Matthew Taylor of the American University said to The Wall Street Journal.

Enrique Elizondo Flores. Nuevo Leon State Investigations Agency photo.

In a cartel known for its bloodlust, he might be the biggest killer of all.

Enrique Aurelio Elizondo Flores, variously called “El Arabe” (“The Arab”) or “The Raven,” has confessed to heading a cell of assassins responsible for the deaths of at least 75 people, according to the state investigative agency of Nuevo Leon and reports which appeared first in the Mexican media. If the body count is accurate, it might place Elizondo as one of the most horrifically efficient murderers of all time. But this isn’t just a random serial killer. Elizondo is a member of the notorious Los Zetas cartel.

According to media reports, Elizondo and his crew of gunmen pulled passengers from buses traveling to the Texas border and the Nuevo Leon towns of Cerralvo, Paras, Agualeguas and General Trevino. They were likely hunting for members of the rival Cartel de Golfo, or Gulf Cartel. Or indiscriminately killing anyone who fit the profile of a suspected enemy. Elizondo was known, it seems, “for torturing, maiming and then killing his victims,” said Nuevo Leon state security spokesman Jorge Domene. Elizondo is also reported to be responsible for the deaths of six cops and “a married couple, and their child.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Photo via Flickr user saikofish.

Faced with the risk of losing half of Mexico to a network of marauding drug traffickers, the Mexican army is digging in for a major new offensive into the heart of Zetas country.

According to Excelsior, the Mexican army is building a string of new bases across the Zetas cartel’s stomping grounds of Tamaulipas to support some 13,000 soldiers currently patrolling the state. This means nearly 30 percent of the Mexican army’s counter-cartel troops are fortifying directly in the Zetas’ homeland (more are fighting the Zetas elsewhere), and it’s a sign Mexico’s cartel strategy has finally found its main enemy.

The shift has been building over the past several months, with the bulk of troops moving into the state in late 2011. The plan: retake areas where “local authorities were overwhelmed by organized crime and drug trafficking.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Type 290 hospital ship. Wikimedia photo.

In October, China ordered the deployment of a 25,000-ton, 300-bed hospital ship dubbed the “Peace Ark” into the Caribbean Sea. The goal: provide humanitarian aid and put on a friendly face for China’s growing international ambitions. This “soft power” mission was similar to related and ongoing U.S. humanitarian missions conducted in the region led by the USNS Comfort hospital ship, the USS Iwo Jima and USS Kearsarge amphibious assault ships and the HSV-2 Swift catamaran.

China’s military ambitions more broadly have pushed some analysts to see a looming threat: at sea, in the air and in space; and now also in the U.S.’s own “backyard.” But how much of China’s growing military capabilities are a credible challenge to the U.S. — or are just a lot of hype — is an open subject. The same is true for military-to-military relations between China and friendly nations, and it’s true in Latin America.

Likewise, China has contributed to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Haiti, and boosted arms sales and donations via countries ranging from Venezuela to Peru.

But while few observers will embrace China’s defense sales to Venezuela, some welcome China’s soft power efforts abroad as a means to integrate China’s military into a broader coalition of shared interests, and as a means to respond to humanitarian crises like the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Nevertheless, this hasn’t stopped reports from circulating about a rising and threatening Chinese dragon south of the border.

In a preview for an upcoming piece in Americas Quarterly, U.S. Army War College adjunct professor Gabriel Marcella writes:

The truth, though, doesn’t look anything like the headlines. Although military diplomacy and arms sales and transfers to some countries of the region have increased in the past decade, the quantity and type of equipment involved hardly represents the strategic threat suggested by the headline writers. Moreover, much of the equipment is logistical in nature; little of it is for combat or power projection.

Latin America as a whole also spends comparatively little on defense — although increasing at a brisk pace, the South American continent combined spends slightly more than the United Kingdom does alone, according to Swedish arms monitor SIPRI. That’s not a whole lot.

And training? The U.S. has the edge. U.S. officers are regularly trained in Latin American military academies and in reverse, but there are no Chinese officers studying in Latin American schools, Marcella says.

He adds:

The alarmist reporting, much of it from U.S. sources, also ignores the Latin American perspective. Latin Americans are not simple bystanders. They seek to engage China in order to understand the nature and extent of China’s power and influence—and its effect on their national interests and foreign policies. They also want to keep their options open for acquiring military equipment at an affordable price and technology transfers for coproduction or independent production. They are also aware of the risks of acquiring a motley mix of systems from various nations, a prospect that makes maintenance expensive and readiness problematic.

However, Marcella points out a key difference between the U.S. and China’s Caribbean cruises. “Unlike the Chinese program,” he writes, “the USNS Comfort does not attend to armed forces personnel and administrative personnel of the countries it visits.”

Flickr/EduardoHildt photo.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, has seen more lucrative days. The-guerrilla-army-turned-drug-cartel has seen its homelands, its outposts and — most importantly — its cocaine revenue chipped away in recent years by record seizures of the drug and a military campaign backed by billions in American aid.

The guerrillas’ solution? Cattle rustling and hustling. Call it narcollaneros, or Colombian cocaine cowboys.

The FARC is suffering from a “lack of financing…. due to the blows to their funding sources, especially drug trafficking,” Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said Monday. “One of the orders was to sell cattle to get more resources.”

Read the rest at Danger Room.

Ahmadinejad in Ecuador. Ecuador state photo.

Iran
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited four countries in Latin America last week. The five-day trip — postponed from September because of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s cancer therapy — brought Ahmadinejad through Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador.  Although the trip was overshadowed by the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist last week in Tehran, Ahmadinejad’s visit provoked a round of discussion in the United States about Iranian intentions in the region. The leaders of each country visited by the Iranian president pledged to support Iran’s nuclear program.

According to Eric Farnsworth of the Council of the Americas, the relationship between Iran and its Latin American allies constitutes a “marriage of political convenience,” he said. “In other words, they need each other.” In Latin America, an anti-imperialist bloc led by Chavez sees Iran as a partner in a common front against the United States. For Ahmadinejad, Latin American nations are partners to help Iran break out of restrictive international sanctions.

What’s not known, however, are the terms and extent of Iranian involvement in the hemisphere. Announcements regarding military and economic deals are common, but it’s difficult to ascertain how much cooperation is substantial or just talk. Also notable: Ahmadinejad skipped Brazil. Analysts have interpreted this as a sign Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has downgraded Brazil’s relationship vis-a-vis Iran in contrast to former President Lula da Silva.

Venezuela
In related news, the United States expelled the Venezuelan Consul General to Miami, Livia Acosta Noguera, after allegations the diplomat planned a cyber attack with help from the Venezuelan, Cuban and Iranian governments. The alleged attack would have targeted computer infrastructure belonging to the FBI, CIA and the White House.

The allegations are difficult to prove, however, and analysts have interpreted the expulsion as a means for the Obama administration to signal disapproval with Ahmadinejad’s visit to Venezuela. Caracas has since withdrawn its remaining Miami consular staff.

Finally, Chavez reshuffled his cabinet, “choosing military men with business ties over Socialist Party loyalists,” reports Americas Quarterly. Former top spy Henry Rangel Silva, who has been accused of cocaine smuggling by the U.S. Treasury Department, was picked to head the defense ministry.

Colombia
Colombia has begun implementing its land restitution program. Under the plan, which became law last summer, farmers and families displaced by drug traffickers and paramilitary groups will now resettle in subsidized areas seized back by the government from militants. The first plot: “Las Catas,” an estate in Cordoba department once controlled by traffickers associated with Pablo Escobar. More than 300 families have reportedly been resettled.

The government is targeting areas formerly controlled by the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), a right-wing paramilitary group which demobilized in 2006 (although many AUC militants continued working in the drug trade), and BACRIMs, a term used for the autonomous criminal groups which were spawned in the wake of the AUC’s departure.

“However, it is likely that in these areas [Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos] will face his biggest challenges both politically and logistically, especially in former paramilitary-controlled areas that have large, legitimate business interests,” writes Edward Fox. “There — as well as displacing alleged ‘guerrillas’ from their land, securing drug trafficking routes and extorting local industry — the AUC introduced a form of pseudo-legitimacy to the displacement of small land owners by in some cases working in conjunction with these big businesses.