by DAVID AXE
“We are in the midst of a shift away from American military predominance towards something different,” DoD Buzz quoted Congressional Research Service analyst Stephen Daggett saying. The American-decline motif has been a popular one for years; more so since the beginning of the current recession. In the minds of analysts, China’s rise mirrors America’s decline. Thus we get DoD Buzz‘s warning about the “looming challenge” that China represents.
These kinds of discussions always take place within the rigid conceptual framework of industrialized warfare. When an analysts posits America’s decline relative to China, he almost always means in terms of conventional weapons: ships, tanks, fighter jets. And in those terms, the analysts might be right. The Pentagon has been de-emphasizing conventional weapons, of late, with a 10-percent reduction in the fighter force and further delays to expanding the Navy.
But that represents a decline only if a conventional conflict is looming. If we are to fight other kinds of wars, the underlying assumptions change, and so do our notions of “rise” and “decline.” For instance, if coming decades mean more failed states and insurgencies — and they most likely do — then American power is rising relative to all potential rivals. Who, after all, has more recent combat experience in small wars, and who has devoted more money and thought to waging small wars, than the U.S.?
China? China is still preparing for maneuver warfare and large-scale sea denial — and not always well. China’s 63 submarines conducted a combined 12 patrols in 2008. The American submarine fleet, roughly the same size, conducted closer to 100. The Office of Naval Intelligence estimated that China’s latest attack submarines are as noisy — and thus as easy to kill — as Russian boats from 30 years ago.
Is U.S. military power declining? For conventional warfare, maybe — slightly. But for irregular warfare, not at all. The rise continues.
(Photo: China Defense Mashup)
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I continue to be amused by the core notion in bureaucratic bar brawls like this- that being on top means spending multiples of the budgets of all the other rich countries your country will never engage in the field.
Without trillions of Chicom inspired credit to the U.S., Operations Useless Dirt 1 and 2 wouldn’t go on for as long as they have. As it is we are already bleeding away so much money that we don’t have ( war funded on credit ), that the Afghan home-boy can just wait us out.
It is only traditional conventional warfare power that provides deterrence. One-war wonders like MRAP and the COIN-only obsession is ruining our ability to project power. Operations USELESS DIRT 1 and 2 do not provide any real national security value to the U.S. taxpayer.
It also neglects the whole cyberwarfare side of things. They have their things together, we have our heads up our ass.
Any war with China will turn into a massive insurgency five minutes after we raise the Stars and Stripes over the Forbidden City.
All of a sudden this focus on insurgency and counter-insurgency makes a whole lot of sense vis-a-vis China. Let’s not forget they invented the People’s War and they will use it again when (God forbid we ever need to, but in that case we’re talking a when-not-if question) we squash their conventional military.
How the hell would we raise the stars and stripes over the Forbidden City? The chinese would launch volleys of missiles at our fleets and at our planes. They have numbers and great defense off of their eastern coastline. We wouldnt even be able to get close. You are delusional.
How would we do it?
We’d shoot down their ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at our ships. This is honestly not a very serious access-denial threat – even if the weapons are capable enough that there’s doubt abour our ability to defeat them we can easily deny them targeting.
We’d shoot down their air force. The margin of superiority here is ridiculous, it would take about a week.
We’d suppress their air defenses. I wonder if the Chinese would be willing to trade S-300 sites for single Predator drones? Seems to me that UAVs make SEAD against these big SAM systems pretty easy.
We’d sweep their mines and diesel submarines out of the littorals. Three words – Littoral Combat Ship. It can move faster than Chinese torpedoes can.
Then we’d hit the beach and start marching. It’d be World War Three, but I have absolute confidence in our ability to do the job.
So am I delusional? No, I’m very, very serious. The United States has the capability to overthrow the Chinese government and will continue to for the forseeable future, I’m just worried about our ability to fight the Chinese insurgency.
The USA is has been at war for 8 years now in Afganistan and almost 7 years in Iraq but still the Afganistan and Iraqi Rebels fight on even after 1 million plus Civilians have been killed, many more wounded and millions more displaced from their homes either as refugees or inside Afganistan and Iraq.
These countries are third world having no airforces, navies or modern armies to speak of yet American has not defeated them and the cost in Blood(on both sides) and the Trillion spent on the conflicts have greatly weakened the US economy and also out image around the world. If Politically a country falls out of favor with the World like the Soviets or Nazi Germany even if they do not engage the country directly in war they will trade less with America, nor will it help America in other ventures either in peace or war. When a country has no Friends nor allies-that country becomes greatly weakened and find itself isolated.
As the economy goes so goes the military also.
America’s economy is wrecked with 35 million people out of work in reality, many more working part time and also many temp workers who only have Temporary jobs. The US manufacturing Sector is Greatly hollowed out and the European Union(34 million manufacturing jobs) along with China are the world’s Greatest Economies and powerhouses- Europe being the Mature power with a high standard of living, Great infrastructure, etc. while China is building up.
When Europe has 3 times the Manufacturing Capacity as America and CHina also has a much Greater Manufacturing Capacity then the USA this says something which the media does not usually pick up on.
Also Europe is the World’s largest Merchandise Exporter and also the World’s largest Services Exporter-by far. China is the Second largest Merchandise Exporter.
Many of the US military parts and Components are made in Europe and Asia along with whole systems being built overseas.
Europe is a Military Superpower with a large Airforce, Navy and Army with power projection increasing with new Transport plans both European, American and Russian along with New Aircraft Carriers,etc. Europe also is Nuclear Armed along with China who is also building their military along with the economy.
When the US dollar worth 50% less then the Euro dollar, when other countries export much more then America overall and per Capita, when American will not go to a Renewable/sustainable economy like Europe is and some other major countries these decisions weaken the USA.
I’ve live in Germany, Traveled around Europe and I know people and the way they live. Free College Tuition, Health Care for everyone and very high quality, 50 days a year of vacation time/holidays-paid,higher wages then the USA,Sick Days, Universal Vocational/technical training-free,the World’s best infrastructure-High speed Rail, Subways, Highways,water systems, Energy infrastructure,building codes,dams,etc. Universal Welfare safety nets,etc! I soon learned that many people in Europe had a much higher standard of living and also a Stronger/more Quality based Society!
ANd since I have seen for my own eyes after coming back and being stuck here it really is disheartening to live in this country the way it is and if I had the opportunity again I would leave, the problem is most Americans do not have any wealth but only debt. And you all ramble on about the Military and we are going to war with 1.3 billion people-fucking grow up!
We have 50% of the World Debts-Trade, Government, Corporate, Consumer,Medicare,etc.
WE have 40% of the world’s Correctional Population-prison, parole, probation,etc.
And a economy that has less jobs then 10 years ago and continues to decline. Repeat we have not had any increase in jobs the last 10 years and now we have less jobs then in 1999!
Our national infrastructure needs 3 trillion to repair.
Healthcare, Education, Welfare,etc. have all been greatly weakened as the economy has weakened.
And last and this is the least important the military has weakened the Navy is about 40% compared to the 1980′s. The Airforce and Army is less then 50% of the 1980′s forces and they continue to shrink. The huge sums of money spent are going to the wars in Afganistan and Iraq along with alot of corruption because of the privatization of the military from feeding the troops to hiring mercenary armies to fight like black water. Also many of the weapons systems being developed do not work and they are a budget black hole-the money is stolen.
This us why the auditor for the Pentigon retired about 7 years ago after being in charge for many years and he stated the pentigan is full of corruption and many of the weapons developed do not work or not up to the level they were purchased for and because of the special interest groups-defense contractors paying off the Government to receive contracts the Military-industrial complex it totally out of control and so he no longer wanted to be a part of the corruption.
China also has Nuclear Weapons and Biological warfare! Any attack on a Nuclear armed country is Suicide. And many of the Biological agents available for war are very,very,very deadly and also could F..k this world up real Good!
Same goes for attacking Europe, Attacking America, attacking Russia or whoever else has these weapons.
I know who all want to brainwash the young kids to fight you wars for you against weak, mostly unarmed countries but anyone who wants to listen.
If against weak countries like Afganistan it is the people that are the power and will fight against invasion of their lives, many US Soldiers will die and many more will be wounded.
The media does not tell you true extent of the Carnage on both sides so just remember before you sign the paperwork to be their mercenary what you getting yourself involved with.
[...] Kuznetsov’s checkered past bodes ill for the Chinese carrier’s future. Besides, even the best Chinese ships spend little time at sea, owing to a lack of planning and logistical infrastructure. For the Chinese, the rebuilt Varyag is a baby step towards an eventual, useful carrier capability. But in no way is a Chinese carrier an imminent threat to U.S. interests. [...]
[...] Puzzling, Missile Test Imagining China’s Aircraft Carrier China’s Future Combat Systems Contesting the American Military “Decline” Chinese Soldiers Get Training from “Old Hunter” Huge Chinese Heli-Carrier to Reinforce Giant, [...]
China is Nuclear Armed, Europe is Nuclear Armed ,Russia is Nuclear Armed, The USA is Nuclear Armed any attack on any of these Countries is Suicide! Not to Mention Europe and Asia build most of America’s Products and places like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada, Etc. Sell Fuel to the USA so the USA is in no position to attack anyone besides smaller Countries. Europe and Asia are our Creditors do you think they Hold Leverage over our Government? Perhaps the US Soldiers are fighting for them(Hired Guns?)
Think about what your getting yourselfs into when you sign up to the Military, the Carnage on both sides, the many people that will die or be wounded both Physically and Mentally, the Women and Children that will die in the Crossfire and when you come back home-if you come back home you will see their faces in your Mind and see the Faces of the Friends you lost all for some Oil tycoons and Elites wanting to keep their Wealth and Control!
Thomas, that’s 1,200 words now in response to a 300 word post. Have you thought about starting your own blog? It sounds like you have a lot to say.