by KYLE MIZOKAMI
Tokyo is obsessed with the F-22 and has spent several years lobbying Washington to release the plane for export. So far, it has been unsuccessful. There are many practical, performance-based reasons why the Japanese want the F-22. Aside from those, the F-22 is a symbol of Japan’s standing in the global order, especially with regards to the rest of Asia and the United States. Despite talk of the Eurofighter or Super Hornet filling Japan’s 40+ aircraft F-X program requirement, only the F-22 will really do. Here’s why.
* Short of building nukes or aircraft carriers, it’s Japan’s sole option to stay on top of the Asian military heap: Japan has traditionally considered itself the most successful of all Asian military powers, yet today Japan’s military is quite small. South Korea maintains a larger army, and China maintains a larger air force. Japan has relied on technology to maintain a qualitative edge, but as both South Korea and China rapidly modernize, Japan is losing that edge. The acquisition of the only operational fifth-generation fighter would restore Japan’s lead in military technology.
* China: Despite the friendly rhetoric and gestures, Japan still sees China as an adversary. There’s too much geography, demographics, history and frankly a sense of cultural superiority in the way. Japan fears China’s numbers, from military manpower to economic manpower, and sees technology as the great equalizer. While China’s resurgent military at this time does not threaten Japan, at the current rate of expansion it could, especially if the PLA developed the ability to conduct an air and naval blockade of Japan. The F-22 is a more capable aircraft than anything on the PLA’s drawing board.
* A culture of safety: There are no bus disasters, new building collapses, or tainted food scares in Japan. This is not accidental. Somewhat unusual for Asian countries, post-war Japan has cultivated a culture of safety that appears obsessive at times.
This culture of safety has led Japan to deploy not one, but two ballistic missile defense systems to counter regional threats. After the recent Taepodong-2 launch, I predicted Japan would add a third system to its inventory, probably the American Theater High Altitude Air Defense system, just to be sure. As expected, Japan is now mulling over a THAAD buy.
Like the ballistic missile threat, Japan has decided the aerial threat is a high priority, and rather than maintaining a large fleet of fighters, would prefer to buy the best fighters money can buy, in smaller quantities. Just in case.
* It’s a “face” thing: To be denied the F-22 would be highly embarrassing to Japan. For 40 years, Japan has had its pick of top-of-the-line American fighters. In the past, that was the F-4 Phantom and the F-15 Eagle. Japan is accustomed to the right to buy the best American fighters, and to deny them at this point would cause Japan to lose face. It would be a public humiliation of Japan that would be hard to stomach, yet another devaluing of Japan in the international order.
* For Japan, the U.S.-Japan military relationship nullifies the past Japan won’t ‘fess up to: As much as the Japanese want the F-22 for practical purposes, there is another reason. Japan has never really owned up to its wartime past, and would prefer all of that unpleasantness just go away. The best way to make it go away is to have excellent relations with the country that not only beat Japan, but is commonly accepted to have been on the right side of the moral fence. So long as America embraces Japan and considers it a full military partner, Japan can pretend its wartime past doesn’t exist.
* So, what would be a win for both the Americans and the Japanese? Move the goalposts and sell Ground-Based Interceptors to Japan. This would be a strictly defensive system that would protect all of Japan from ballistic missiles and give it a shiny new bauble of American technology nobody else has. Ballistic missiles, not fighters, are the biggest threat to Japanese security. Japan could field a cheaper 4.5-generation fighter in the interim to satisfy immediate requirements, while at the same time developing the indigenous ATD-X fighter. It’s a win-win situation for everyone … except for Lockheed Martin.
(Photo: Creative Commons)
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Sorry, your compromise is only a compromise from a US perspective, seen from the perspective of Japan it would be a betrayal.
Japan faces two existential threats from anyone with the necessary capability.
1. Nuclear Ballistic Missiles
2. Naval Blockade
As you mention, Japan is actively considering a THAAD buy to compensate for an increased threat of Nuclear Annihilation; but a passive defense is no defense against blockade. Your proposed compromise denies them both their preferred defense against blockade, and undermines their trust in the US alliance.
Only a combination of an adequate navy or airforce and a strong alliance with the world’s dominant naval power can reassure Japan. I believe that denying them the F-22 will only result in their seeking to expand their submarine fleet, and most likely obtaining small carriers. This will further destabilise East-Asia to the detriment of US interests.
If you haven’t guessed, I don’t see any way for the US to avoid selling F-22′s to Japan if it is to act in its own best interest.
Please, allow me to play raptor advocate.
Why isn’t Raptor + NCADE seen as the logical future air component of a real BMD network?
It can’t be because of PAC-3 sales, can it? I’d wager that LM would rather sell a few more guns than bullets…
Give the world ten years of naval-focused mobile BMD development. Isn’t the smart money on a stealthy platform for those BMD-AMRAAMs? They’re putting targeting IR on UAS now…
I’m all for selling the Japanese the F-22, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. We’re locked into short-term interest (securing the technology) instead of addressing the long-term (reassuring our Allies.) I’d be happy to be wrong, but the window is closing, and it looks like Japan is not going to be let in.
Japan basically faced the same two threats of nuclear missiles and a naval blockade from 1950 to 1991. The difference is that this time, Nuclear Annihilation, the true existential threat, is avoidable through ballistic missile defense.
As for a Naval Blockade (which is hardly existential, Japan has been blockaded before) Japan has always relied on the United States to break a blockade. Japan’s navy is armed and structured for an anti-invasion/convoy escort role, and the air force is basically just large enough to be avoid being annihilated before the Americans reinforce. Neither were ever equipped to fight alone; the Americans were always in the big picture. Things are basically no different now than they were forty years ago, except Japan has three or four AEGIS destroyers.
Under this proposal, Japan has GBI to shoot down the Nuclear Ballistic Missiles, and the Americans to break the Naval Blockade. This would be a substantial improvement in Japanese security over 1969, or any year since. I understand when you say that Japan would consider not being sold the F-22 a betrayal, but GBI is F-22 -class technology, and if both sides could spin it as being more important than the F-22 (which is true, again at an existential level) I think the U.S. and Japan could get away with it.
Shouldn’t all of the F-22 advocates and lobbyists, rather than rage against Obama and Gates in a futile attempt to scrounge out a hundred more planes, instead lobby for legislation permitting F-22E sales to Japan? It is, presumably, all about the Benjamins, and F-22 exports to Japan would ensure that all of the manufacturing jobs were retained, backs scratched, wallets filled, etc.
However, THAAD would fall more in line with the (supposed-to-be) defensive nature of Japan’s forces, whereas both domestic Japanese opposition and Korean/Chinese observers are sure to challenge the F-22 as being offensive in nature. Given Tokyo’s ongoing political gridlock, is it even guaranteed that the Diet would authorize a purchase even if our Congress did?
As a fellow Asian, i’d say you are right on.
I agree with a lot of this but as a resident of Japan for the past 5 years, I take issue with the culture of safety part. While there is an obsession about safety, there have been quite a few tainted food scares in my time. US beef was banned for mad cow back when I first arrived and in the past couple years there have been deaths caused by tainted Chinese vegetables. There was also a pretty bad rail crash a couple years ago that killed many people, all because the conductor was under pressure to make up lost time and jumped the rails. Not to mention the nuclear plant workers who were parboiled alive because of lax maintenance on the equipment.
While Japan shows a lot of concern for safety and goes through the motions, it often forgets about other things. Maybe this is also relevant to it’s lust for the F-22.
Good post though, everything else seems spot on.
The JSDF would be far better served by buying 250+ JAS 39 NG … rather than 40+ F-22J.
Moot point now, F-35B would be a better bet anyway.
Japan should just buy 4.5 generation fighters, like the EF-2000 or Rafale. It would probably eventually field F-35′s as well, and it’s own ATD-X. It can buy the F-15 Silent Eagle as a quick compromise in the near future if it feels the need to have technology on it’s side.
This obsession with the F-22 by the Japanese is logical from a quick look, but after analysis of the reasons for the obsession, as this article does so greatly – you find it is slightly strange.
Japan already fields 4.5gen fighters. 2/3rds of their fighter fleet is F-15J’s, the rest are F-2′s (upsized F-16′s with naval strike capability) and F-4′s (upgraded phantom fighter-bombers).
Anyone suggesting they should be buying JAS39′s or EF-2000′s need to explain how these planes are significantly better than their existing fleet of 270+ 4.5gen strike-fighters.
Japan is still flying 100 F-4′s, so they clearly aren’t subject to the US’s neophile tendency to abandon the past at the first sign of something shiny and new. However stealth is a key enabler, and an obvious deficiency in Japan’s air defences.
If the F-35 program meets its original brochure-ware promises then it might suffice, but that isn’t going to happen – so Japan’s focus on the F-22 is very understandable.
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[...] U.S. allies such as Japan, Israel and Australia have each shown interest in purchasing the aircraft and asked Washington to drop the export barriers on a single-case basis to afford them the opportunity to buy the aircraft. Japan has been especially assertive in its lobbying efforts, while Israel has repeatedly expressed a desire to procure the F-22. [...]
[...] which would allow it to intercept missiles headed to the U.S. I pitched that idea last year at War Is Boring. I’ve not seen any reports though that the U.S. has actually made such a sales pitch. [...]