by DAVID AXE
In 2006, U.S.-backed Ethiopian forces invaded Somalia to destroy the moderate Islamic Courts Union government. It was a huge mis-step that sparked a bloody, two-year insurgency. Ethiopia pulled out early this year, and into the vacuum stepped former Islamic Courts co-leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who formed an alliance with the U.S.-, U.N.- and Ethiopian-supported “transitional government,” then in exile in Djibouti. Ahmed was subsequently elected president.
When now-President Ahmed returned to Mogadishu, his former Islamic Courts partner Hassan Dahir Aweys returned from hiding in Eritrea, rallied hardline Islamic fighters and attacked the city (casualty pictured) to prevent Ahmed solidifying his control. The fighting peaked last week, and has since declined, as Islamic factions peel away from the attackers to join the government.
So how does Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi feel about all this?
I think that it is a reflection of desperation and a desire to destabilize a fragile government. For me, it is a sign of desperation for two reasons. Firstly, I think that Dahir Aweys and his team are beginning to feel that they are losing the game in Mogadishu among the Islamists. There are moderate elements of the Islamic movement that are more and more disassociating themselves from his hard-line group and they [Aweys and his people] appear to be eager to stem the tide in that sense.
(Photo: Somali Weyn)
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[...] In their wake, Ahmed signed a peace deal with former clan enemies and established a new government that has won U.S., U.N. and Ethiopian backing. But then Aweys, with alleged Eritrean backing, launched an attack on Ahmed’s government in Mogadishu two weeks ago. The fighting has claimed hundreds of lives. [...]
Yeah, let’s ask Bush for his detached opinion on the Iraqi insurgency…
Also, are you sure of the direction of the flow ? One inda’ade does not a movement make… Sharif controls essentially as much of mog as yussuf did after the Ethiopians left, and he’s Abgaal…
[...] Related: World Politics Review: Somali Extremists Willing to Kill, to Cover Up Eritrea Connection Death Threat E-mail from Somali Extremist Somali Journo, Assassination Survivor, Flees Country World Politics Review: Attacks on Somali Media Underscore Lawlessness Somali Gov’t to Neighbors: Invade Us, Please Help Rescue a Somali Reporter, Targeted for Assassination Offiziere.ch: Mogadishu Battle Draws in Foreign Powers Ethiopians Re-Invade Somalia? Ethiopian Prez: Somali Insurgents “Desperate” Alleged American Jihadist in Somalia = CIA Drone? Offiziere.ch: Fresh Fighting Deepens Somali Islamist Schism Fighting Resumes in Mogadishu No Comments so far Leave a comment RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI Leave a comment Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong> [...]
[...] Related: Diagnosing Somalia’s “Failing” Transitional Government Offiziere.ch: Spies Posing as Reporters, Threaten Journalism Two More Foreigners Abducted in Somalia? World Politics Review: Somali Extremists Willing to Kill, to Cover Up Eritrea Connection Death Threat E-mail from Somali Extremist Somali Journo, Assassination Survivor, Flees Country World Politics Review: Attacks on Somali Media Underscore Lawlessness Somali Gov’t to Neighbors: Invade Us, Please Help Rescue a Somali Reporter, Targeted for Assassination Offiziere.ch: Mogadishu Battle Draws in Foreign Powers Ethiopians Re-Invade Somalia? Ethiopian Prez: Somali Insurgents “Desperate” Alleged American Jihadist in Somalia = CIA Drone? Offiziere.ch: Fresh Fighting Deepens Somali Islamist Schism Fighting Resumes in Mogadishu 1 Comment so far Leave a comment [...]
[...] (Photo: David Axe) Related: Offiziere.ch: Spies Posing as Reporters, Threaten Journalism Two More Foreigners Abducted in Somalia? World Politics Review: Somali Extremists Willing to Kill, to Cover Up Eritrea Connection Death Threat E-mail from Somali Extremist Somali Journo, Assassination Survivor, Flees Country World Politics Review: Attacks on Somali Media Underscore Lawlessness Somali Gov’t to Neighbors: Invade Us, Please Help Rescue a Somali Reporter, Targeted for Assassination Offiziere.ch: Mogadishu Battle Draws in Foreign Powers Ethiopians Re-Invade Somalia? Ethiopian Prez: Somali Insurgents “Desperate” Alleged American Jihadist in Somalia = CIA Drone? Offiziere.ch: Fresh Fighting Deepens Somali Islamist Schism Fighting Resumes in Mogadishu 1 Comment so far Leave a comment [...]
[...] Ahmed’s ascension in January was widely praised, in Somalia and abroad, as the country’s best chance for peace in two decades. A moderate Islamists in an increasingly religious country, Ahmed and his supporters broke the tradition of strictly clan-based rule. The recent fighting might seem to undermine confidence in Ahmed’s regime. On the other hand, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said the coup attempt only highlights Al Shabab’s “desperation.” [...]