War Is Boring

David Axe here. This post is the first from new contributor Kyle Mizokami, a writer based in San Francisco. Kyle will be keeping track of Far East issues for me. He debuts with this look at recent F-22 deployments to Asia.

Last week, six F-22 Raptor fighters from the 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron traveled to Kadena Air Force Base (pictured) in Japan, where they will conduct air combat training with Kadena-based F-15 Eagles. It’s the second deployment to Japan in as many years for the F-22.

There are clear benefits to the Air Force in general, and the F-22 community in particular, to this overseas rotation. It’s also in America’s interests to rotate its best fighters to the far-flung edges of American power. But this deployment by can only whet the well-known appetite of the Japanese government for the F-22 fighter, an appetite whose satisfaction could only improve the prospects of a further Raptor buy for the Air Force.

Japan is seeking to replace its aging fleet of F-4EJ Phantoms with an immediate purchase of a fighter currently in production. Those under consideration for the so-called F-X fighter program include the F-22, an improved version of the F-15, the F/A-18E/F, the F-35, the European Typhoon and French Rafale.

Japan has traditionally been first in line for the latest in American fighters: both the F-4 and the F-15 were purchased early on in their production careers in large quantities for use by the Air Self Defense Force. The Japanese have repeatedly expressed their desire to purchase the F-22. However, Japanese efforts has been hampered by U.S. export law: the F-22 cannot legally be exported.

After years of trying, recent reports state that Japan is backing off plans to acquire the F-22, fearing that the incoming Obama Administration will decline to make further F-22 purchases for the Air Force. Ironically, the timing may never be better for Japan. Obama is coming under pressure from a number of senators, many of whose states benefit from the F-22 program, to increase the overall Raptor buy. A Japanese purchase of Raptors would lead to lower per unit costs for any follow-on USAF purchase.

Japan has produced a static model of an indigenous fifth-generation fighter, a prototype called the ATD-X, or Shin Shin. Japan has a limited capability to design fighter aircraft on its own — its latest effort, the F-2, was based on the American F-16 and developed in conjunction with Lockheed Martin. At the current rate of funding (which was cut in 2008) the Shin Shin isn’t projected to fly until 2015, and then only as a demonstration aircraft.

This situation raises questions with long-term implications not only for the American-Japanese alliance, but also for the American defense industry. What might happen if the Japanese buy elsewhere? The vast majority of Japan’s foreign arms purchases come from the United States. Spurning Japanese appeals for the F-22 might open the door for increased competition from Europe.

Is it in American interests that Japan produce a fifth-generation fighter on its own? Despite all the disadvantages of the Japanese position, it would be wise not to count out one of the most technologically proficient countries in the world, not to mention the country that produced the Zero fighter. Every fighter Japan produces on its own is a lost sale for Lockheed Martin. And though the Japanese constitution currently prevents it, Japan may some day export military equipment abroad, putting high-quality armaments in direct competition with the finest from American industry. America currently has the market cornered on fifth-generation fighters — does it want to help create competition?

(Photo: David Axe)

Related posts:

1. Why Japan Won’t Have Aircraft Carriers Anytime Soon
2. Offiziere.ch: Imagining the “Air Force After Next”
3. The Diplomat: U.S. Eyeing Asian Arms Race?