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Actually, the figure is more around 200-500 Koksan 170mm guns and around 200 240mm rocket artillery and an unknown number of 122mm rocket artillery. Naturally, the idea that all of the DPRK artillery is within range of Seoul is a myth but the artillery that is within range can cause some serious damage.
I guess whether “it’s true” or not depends on what you mean by “level Seoul”. What is an acceptable level of damage? Obviously that’s a question that only South Koreans can answer. In every fight you have to know how much you’re willing to lose to secure a victory.
Also, do we have any idea how accurate their artillery is, how well-trained their crews are, and whether they have sufficient ammo stocks to unleash that kind of barrage?
“I guess whether “it’s true” or not depends on what you mean by “level Seoul”. What is an acceptable level of damage? Obviously that’s a question that only South Koreans can answer. In every fight you have to know how much you’re willing to lose to secure a victory.”
Very good point. I doubt the North Koreans would be able to win an all out war against South Korea in the long run, but will the cost ever be worth it?
To my knowledge, information is very scarce as to how well-trained the DPRK artillery crews are, but it is fairly certain that ammunition is fairly abundant with at least a few days worth of barrage fire.(in any case, the guns will likely be knocked out before they run out of ammo.)
As for accuracy, Seoul is a pretty massive target, it is literally impossible to miss if your guns have the range. Furthermore, the DMZ has been zeroed out to the hilt.
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http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes%21-%282009%29
What the link says, in a nutshell, is that Koksan guns are the only artillery that can hit central Seoul from behind the DMZ. Due to assumed Allied air superiority it would be suicide to move these guns in the open, so they would have to be used from HARTS positions. There are only about 100 or so firing positions that would be in range of Seoul, and not all of these are likely suitable for Koksans.
Orbat.com has another projection, this time involving 500 Koksan guns, that sounds more realistic and less dangerous for Seoul. This projection does not involve HARTS.
http://www.orbat.com/site/agtw_news/2009/june_2009.html
Read the June 5th entry.
Could Seoul be hit? Sure. But the idea that millions of artillery rounds would fall on Seoul and kill a million civilians is way, way off.
Thank you for the links, they make for some interesting reading.
As I mentioned in a previous post, my information suggests that the DPRK has no more than 200-500 Koksan guns, of which 200 or so are currently deployed in HARTS. It is also important to remember that the DPRK also maintains 240 and 122mm MLRS that can reach the northern suburbs of Seoul.
I am of the opinion that the DPRK gun/rocket artillery will largely be neutralized in the first week, but definately not in a matter of hours. Lets not forget the lessons from the 2006 Lebanon war that showed the limitations of an aerial campaign, and the North Koreans have had decades to entrench.
To be sure, whoever thinks that millions of Seoul civilians would die from DPRK artillery is pure and simply wrong. I am even not sure that the N Koreans would use the artillery against Seoul but it seems to me they would more likely use it on the DMZ and leave the cities to theis SSMs.
“To be sure, whoever thinks that millions of Seoul civilians would die from DPRK artillery is pure and simply wrong. I am even not sure that the N Koreans would use the artillery against Seoul but it seems to me they would more likely use it on the DMZ and leave the cities to theis SSMs.”
Agreed. You know, there was a report that two unnamed countries in Asia were interested in Israel’s Iron Dome anti-rocket system. It came out that one of them was Singapore. I’ll bet the other is South Korea.
Interesting. South Korea is probably the other Asian country indeed.
Incidently, great drawings!
The comic was well made, but the citations backing up the assertions of the comic strip were truly excellent. Thank you.
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