Army “Future” Questioned

20.05.07

Categorie: Industry, Infantry, Reality Check |

Super-reporter Greg Grant has a kickass piece in GovExec about the Army’s ambitious but fundamentally flawed Future Combat Systems, a $200-billion networked combination of sensors, robots and new lightly armored ground vehicles that Winslow Wheeler from the Center for Defense Information calls a “money-guzzling fantasy of the wizards of the so-called ‘revolution in military affairs.’” Grant argues that FCS grew not out of genuine need for new equipment, but out of “a political battle for taxpayer dollars with the Air Force and Navy in the late 1990s, when the military embraced a questionable vision of warfare fought from a distance with sensors and precision munitions” mounted on thin-skinned, more mobile vehicles. He continues:

The FCS weapons suite is intended to provide soldiers unprecedented knowledge of the location of friendly and enemy forces. This concept is embodied in the Army’s new catchphrase: “See first, understand first, decide first and finish decisively.” To achieve that level of situational awareness, hundreds of aerial drones would fill the sky above FCS-equipped units, scanning for enemies to be destroyed by long-range missile fire. The entire program is predicated on the belief that unprecedented levels of information will make FCS-equipped units more lethal and more likely to survive.

But [Army-funded think tank] RAND found that even with expected improvements and technological advances in remote surveillance and targeting systems out to the year 2020, “remote assets will not ensure ‘understanding’ on the future battlefield.” A 2002 RAND paper, titled “Exploring Advanced Technologies for the FCS Program,” stated, “We found that an enemy who relies on cover, concealment, deception, intermingling and dispersion will be difficult if not impossible to monitor from overhead assets.” The studies showed what historical experience has revealed: An enemy out in the open can be successfully struck from a distance. But in an urban area, forest or jungle, enemies can hide from overhead surveillance.

Wary of FCS’s ballooning cost and increasingly skeptical of its underlying assumptions concerning “information superiority,” Congress has progressively cut the program’s budget. Most recently, the House proposed to slice nearly $900 million from the 2008 request, perhaps signalling the beginning of the end of FCS. But even if the overall program and its vulnerable new ground vehicles go away, many of the smaller components – including robots, sensors and hybrid-electric technologies – will survive in other applications, as I reported a couple months back:

The heart of FCS is its software-based network radios, new sensors and software — and it’s these that would probably be salvaged from the program’s wreckage. These can, in theory, be ported to new versions of the Army’s existing (and still world-beating) tanks and other vehicles, transforming the service at persumably a fraction of the cost of present plans. The Army is already planning on testing out FCS radios and other “boxes” years before the FCS vehicles roll out of the factories. And the service intends to eventually retrofit elements of FCS to older platforms anyways. Expanding and accelerating that plan in place of developing brand-new vehicles could save precious dollars — and could address concerns that FCS vehicles are too thinly armored to survive on modern battlefields by keeping today’s tougher tanks and fighting vehicles longer.

In fact, recognizing that FCS is feeding lots of useful bits and pieces into the current force, some managers within the program are arguing for a new, more realistic name … without the word “future.”

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8 Responses to “Army “Future” Questioned”

  1. Fantasy Combat System…

    David Axe (one of the presenters on my DHS Blogging on Science panel this Wednesday) relays a good article from GovExec on the Army’s Fantasy, er, Future Combat System: Super-reporter Greg Grant has a kickass piece in GovExec about the……

  2. [...] The Army has opened a $1-million engine test facility for its $200-billion Future Combat Systems program amid Congressional concerns that the ambitious modernization program costs too much and fails to improve upon existing weapons.The test facility at the Tank-Automotive Research and Development Center (TARDEC) in Warren, Michigan, includes several bays where engineers from the Army and from General Dynamics – one of several major defense firms associated with FCS – can install prototype hybrid-electric engines and their associated generators and put them through power loads simulating use in combat. Hybrid engines are slated for installation in the FCS manned vehicles, the first of which would enter service around 2014. [...]

  3. [...] The Army’s $120-billion Future Combat Systems – a light, networked family of vehicles intended to replace a third of the active tank and Bradley fleet — was conceived in the 1990s before Improvised Explosive Devices and Explosively Formed Penetrators started demolishing U.S. forces in Iraq. So does the FCS concept still hold water? [...]

  4. [...] How might this rhetoric be turned into policy? Kaplan focuses on promotion practices that weed out the creative in favor of good ol’ boy group-thinkers. But it could also mean the end of big-ticket high-tech weapons systems like Future Combat Systems in favor of more foreign-force training teams, more cultural training for our own troops and an emphasis on infantry-heavy stability ops over mechanized warfare that aims to apply precision fires on strictly military targets. [...]

  5. [...] Related: SecDef wants to revamp Army Army “future” questioned Army future evolves to counter IEDs No Comments so far Leave a comment RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI Leave a comment Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong> [...]

  6. [...] * The Army’s $160-billion Future Combat Systems will lose most of its lightly-armored, manned vehicles and some of the high-order networking. The vehicles were too vulnerable, anyways, and the network has ballooned in complexity and cost. For networking, the Army has older, more reliable systems already in place. [...]

  7. [...] Designing the Army’s Retro ‘Future’ Sep 1 Diesel Tech News from around the net! In April, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced he would terminate the $87-billion manned vehicle portion of Future Combat Systems (FCS), the Army’s plan to create a fully wired future force. “The FCS vehicles — where lower weight, higher fuel efficiency and greater information awareness are expected to compensate for less armor — do not adequately reflect the lessons of counterinsurgency and close-quarters combat in Iraq and Afghanistan,” Gates said. [...]

  8. [...] Sound familiar? What Mao Ming is describing is essentially the original vision for the U.S. Army’s now-defunct Future Combat Systems, which aimed to connect a family of lightweight vehicles to a robust command-and-control and sensor network. Spiraling cost and problems with the network, plus the clear vulnerability of light vehicles on modern battlefields, doomed FCS, and it was dismantled in the 2010 budget cycle. [...]

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